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"Suddenly $5,000 is the new $3,000": Instant viral meme, good one
Andrew!<br>
<br>
And $30,000/year is the new $60,000/year, thanks to all those H1B
visas driving down wages. <br>
<br>
This is the interesting thing about "markets": <br>
<br>
When rents go sky-high, that's a "market" and the plutocracy chants
that the Holy Invisible Hand should reign supreme. But when
employers can't find people who'll work on farms for $3.00/hour, or
write code for $30,000/year, then it's time for a little socialism
for the plutocracy, by way of opening the H1B floodgates. And that
makes property owners happy too, so it's a two-fer!<br>
<br>
"Jobs Americans won't do" is what economists call a "price signal",
which translates as "jobs Americans won't do AT THAT PRICE." If the
plutocracy was at all consistent (ha ha funny) they wouldn't go
running for socialistic interventions to drive down labor costs,
they'd suck it up and pay the market price, whether that means
paying farm workers $15/hour, or paying coders $60,000/year. <br>
<br>
There's a reason it's more difficult to get into DSNY (Department of
Sanitation, City of New York) than it is to get into Yale. It's
spelled U-N-I-O-N.<br>
<br>
Socialism for all, or socialism for none!<br>
<br>
-G.<br>
<br>
<br>
=====<br>
<br>
<br>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 13-06-10-Mon 4:59 PM, Andrew wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote
cite="mid:CADWgu_=Hgm3foezp3GSmRUr+Sn=vJ4Ckjt20Y3YVuy_KFDQrzQ@mail.gmail.com"
type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">Lets be clear that no one is arguing there should
be less housing in SF. The argument is that current housing in
SF is too expensive and vacant. There isn't a scarcity as much
as a price fixing scheme going on. The only purpose for building
new units is for the developers and landlords to get in on the
scheme while it's hot, hoping for the market to bounce back and
suddenly $5,000 is the new $3,000 in SF and they are sitting on
prime real estate. In the meantime the units will remain vacant
or just rented out (or leased) to people moving in to the City
for work.<br>
</div>
<div class="gmail_extra"><br>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">On Mon, Jun 10, 2013 at 4:32 PM, GtwoG
PublicOhOne <span dir="ltr"><<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:g2g-public01@att.net" target="_blank">g2g-public01@att.net</a>></span>
wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0
.8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div bgcolor="#FFFFFF" text="#000000"> <br>
That $5,000/month 2-BR apartment translates to $60K/year
for rent, which means that the owner isn't even going to
look at anyone with an income below $180K, or a married
couple with joint income of $180K and perfect credit
ratings. <br>
<br>
Re. "many levels of rich": the average millionaire is
closer to his/her gardener in terms of net worth, than to
the plutocrats (but most millionaires have no clue about
this). In any case, there are enough people in the 1% to
account for 95% of the spending in the economy (keyword
search "plutonomy" and look for the report that was leaked
from one of the major banks on that topic), so the bottom
99% is almost irrelevant ("supply and demand" for human
lives, again).<br>
<br>
Re. "at whatever level a developer wants to provide more
housing, I'll say YES DO IT..." Be careful what you wish
for...<br>
<br>
Re. "tall buildings..." (preceding email): When the
inevitable 7.0 on either the Hayward or San Andreas
occurs, even if the building remains standing (this can't
be taken for granted either, given the problems with the
imported steel in the Bay Bridge) power & water will
be out for weeks, possibly months in some areas.
Elevators and air conditioning won't be working in those
buildings. So now you have highrises full of people, some
of whom are elderly, disabled, or have small kids, with no
food or water, and no sanitation. Asking neighbors to
carry food up the stairs might work, but lugging water up
ten or twenty flights is a non-starter (a 2-day supply for
one person for drinking and cooking, is about 25 lbs.). <br>
<br>
Even earthquake-denialism doesn't help us, because adding
high-rises adds demand for water, sewer, and parking, all
the time. Assuming that most high-rise residents won't
have cars doesn't help much, because some will, and those
will still add up to more cars than there is space to park
them. Water and sewer are the biggies, and any move
toward highrise development will require digging up
streets and installing new water & sewer mains, which
translate to higher costs either in rent or in taxes.<br>
<br>
Albert Einstein was a pacifist, and Edward Teller was a
hawk. Both agreed that the exponential function is the
most dangerous math on Earth. <br>
<br>
-G.<br>
<br>
<br>
=====
<div>
<div class="h5"><br>
<br>
<br>
<div>On 13-06-10-Mon 3:41 PM, Sonja Trauss wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>Yeah Jehan that's how I
understand it. <br>
<br>
</div>
Eddie's scenario though is that
rich_guy CAN'T move into the nice new
apt, because before he gets there,
some rich_guy_2 moves into the apt
from Mountain View, and <i>rich_guy_2
would not have moved into SF if the
new apartments hadn't been built</i>.
<br>
<br>
</div>
This is a scenario, so we should explore
its antecedents and consequences. <br>
<br>
</div>
My first response is - so what if this
happens. In this scenario rents go neither
up or down. I don't think it's realistic
to expect that all new building will be
taken up like this, but, since I don't
know the future, it's worth imagining this
extreme outcome and asking, is it bad? if
it is bad, is it so bad that we shouldn't
take the risk of it happening? I don't see
it as bad. Like I said before, it will
have no net affect on rent, so we lose
nothing, and there might be ancillary
benefits: my $13 jam business might
improve, or my $75/ hour personal yoga
coach business. Maybe I'm a social worker,
and this means there will be more money in
the city budget for my organization.
whatever. <br>
<br>
</div>
Next, more interestingly, let's consider
what could possibly cause rich_guy_2's
behavior. Usually people move to be closer
to work, to be closer to some fun city
center, to be closer to family, they make
the decision and then they look for housing.
They do not hear of new housing being built
and say, on that fact alone, 'I will now
move!' <br>
<br>
</div>
If someone hears of new housing being built,
and he then says, 'I will now move,' it is
because he is (1) very strict about only
living in brand new housing (not likely) or
(2) RESPONDING TO AN INCREASE IN SUPPLY AT HIS
PRICE POINT. <br>
<br>
</div>
Have you ever heard someone say "there are no
available apartments in SF"? Of course he
doesn't mean there are no available apartments,
of course there are apartments: <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/apa/"
target="_blank">http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/apa/</a>
there's a $5000 2 bedroom at the top of the
list. What he means is "there are no available
apartments in SF at my price point." So, this
person, who wants to spend say, $3000 for a nice
2 bedroom lives somewhere else, and waits for
the supply of $3000 2 bedroom apartments to
increase. This is rich_guy_2. This person is
currently priced out of San Francisco. Hard to
believe, but true, there are many levels of
rich. You can be house shopping and be priced
out at almost any price point. I'm sympathetic
to people that are priced out. I don't want to
see anyone priced out. I'm not going to
discriminate based on income high or low. No one
should be priced out. If you can pay $300/mo or
$3000 you should be able to find something you
think is reasonable in this town. The supply of
housing in SF is too small at all but the
highest price point. At whatever level a
developer wants to supply more housing, I will
say YES. DO IT. <br>
<br>
</div>
MOREOVER. If it's expensive to build, developers
will only be able to afford to build high priced
projects. One of the things that makes building
expensive is fighting with neighbors. So its
ironic (and a little sad) to see people who want
lower priced housing doing things that make
building expensive. I think I said this in another
email, but if a smaller budget developer wants to
build a cheaper project, but sees that even the
very rich developer can barely get his project
finished because he has to spend time and
resources fighting with neighbors, then the
smaller developer will be like forget it, I can't
do this. <br>
</div>
<div class="gmail_extra"><br>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">On Mon, Jun 10, 2013 at
1:46 PM, Jehan Tremback <span dir="ltr"><<a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:jehan.tremback@gmail.com"
target="_blank">jehan.tremback@gmail.com</a>></span>
wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0
0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc
solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">@Eddie- Sorry about the eye!
That was the default Ubuntu avatar, and it
somehow got synced to my email when I ran
Pidgin. So the eye is actually open source!
I'll get rid of it though if you want.
<div> <br>
</div>
<div>I'll go over this briefly, but there
are better resources out there. </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Let's say rich guy can afford $3000
dollars a month and wants to live in SF.
So landlord charges him $3000 for an
apartment because it isn't a closet. Since
there is nowhere else to live in SF, rich
guy pays this. New luxury building opens
across the street with really nice new
apartments for $3000 a month. Rich guy
decides to move, and landlord puts
apartment back on the market for $3000.
But because all of the other rich guys are
also living in the new luxury building,
landlord finds no tenants. Next month,
landlord is forced to lower rent to $2000
and 4 hackers move in. This is how the
market works.</div>
<span><font color="#888888">
<div><br>
</div>
<div>-Jehan</div>
</font></span></div>
<div class="gmail_extra"><br>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div>
<div>On Mon, Jun 10, 2013 at 11:46 AM,
Sonja Trauss <span dir="ltr"><<a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:sonja.trauss@gmail.com"
target="_blank">sonja.trauss@gmail.com</a>></span>
wrote:<br>
</div>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote"
style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px
#ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<div>
<div>Ok so your position is that the
whole of the new housing will be
taken up by people who don't
currently live in SF, want to, but
won't move into SF unless new
housing is built.
<div> <br>
</div>
<div>Can you describe what it is
about the new housing that will
make people who already have
stable, adequate places to live
elsewhere move into it, when
they've already decided theyre
not interested in living in any
of the currently available sf
housing? Does this question make
sense? What's special about the
new housing? What would make a
person move to SF Only If new
housing is built? What is the
scenario. I can think of two.
One silly and one not silly. <span></span></div>
</div>
<div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>
<div><br>
On Sunday, June 9, 2013, Eddie
Che wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote"
style="margin:0 0 0
.8ex;border-left:1px #ccc
solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<div> Oy, greetings. First
of all that Eye is really
hateful, let's tone<br>
that down a little! I've
been against the eye
because it is oppressive<br>
so, chill. @Jehan.<br>
<br>
Building will increase the
population in San
Francisco. Not house the<br>
houseless and not bring
down rents. These are
upscale (condos?)<br>
apartments, bringing the
added keyword of
gentrification.<br>
<br>
I like the Spain example.
Government here (County,
City, State, and<br>
National) could give land
that is being held by it,
eg around highway<br>
off-ramps or hills or
wherEVER to folks who are
disenchanted with...<br>
corporate rule.<br>
<br>
"liberating land from
private control and
corporate interests and
for<br>
the common good of all
people."<br>
<br>
Can we hack that?<br>
EMCHE, in a tree.<br>
<br>
PS by the way, surprising
about SF's vacant housing
units @<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="https://www.baycitizen.org/blogs/pulse-of-the-bay/sf-leads-bay-area-vacant-homes/"
target="_blank">https://www.baycitizen.org/blogs/pulse-of-the-bay/sf-leads-bay-area-vacant-homes/</a><br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
On Sat, Jun 8, 2013 at
6:41 PM, GtwoG PublicOhOne
<<a
moz-do-not-send="true">g2g-public01@att.net</a>>
wrote:<br>
><br>
> Imagine a news
headline saying "Good news
for the economy: food
prices are<br>
> up for the third
month in a row!"
Food-owners would
celebrate, and<br>
> foodless-rights
advocates would protest,
but nothing would change
unless the<br>
> entire system of
food-speculation was
curbed.<br>
><br>
> Or imagine this:
Dateline: Marinaleda,
Spain. Municipal
government GIVES<br>
> dispossessed people
the land and building
materials to build their
own<br>
> homes, and pays
contractors to provide
assistance with the
high-skill parts<br>
> such as plumbing.
This is REAL and it's
happening NOW.<br>
><br>
> <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22701384"
target="_blank">http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22701384</a><br>
><br>
> "In the wake of
Spain's property crash,
hundreds of thousands of
homes have<br>
> been repossessed.
While one regional
government says it will
seize<br>
> repossessed
properties from the banks,
a little town is doing
away with<br>
> mortgages altogether.
... In Marinaleda,
residents like 42-year-old<br>
> father-of-three,
David Gonzalez Molina, are
building their own homes.<br>
><br>
> "The town hall in
this ... town an
hour-and-a-bit east of
Seville, has given<br>
> David 190 sq m (2,000
sq ft) of land. ... The
bricks and mortar are also
a<br>
> gift... from the
regional government of
Andalusia. ... Only once
his home is<br>
> finished will he
start paying 15 euros
(£13) [approx. $26] a
month, to the<br>
> regional government,
to refund the cost of
other building materials.
...<br>
><br>
> "...[The town's]
Mayor Juan Manuel Sanchez
Gordillo is known for
occupying<br>
> land belonging to the
wealthy in Andalusia. ...
Last summer, he and his<br>
> left-wing union
comrades stole from
supermarkets and handed
out the food to<br>
> the poor. "I think
it is possible that a home
should be a right, and not
a<br>
> business, in Europe",
he argues. Mayor Sanchez
Gordillo pours scorn on<br>
> "speculators"....<br>
><br>
> ---<br>
><br>
> Think outside the
box, and you might end up
thinking like Mayor
Sanchez<br>
> Gordillo.<br>
><br>
> What happens when
home prices and rents keep
increasing while average
income<br>
> levels have barely
budged since 1974?<br>
><br>
> What happens to the
lives of people, when the
health of an economy in
large<br>
> part depends on
relentless increase in the
price of a vital necessity
that<br>
> is also a fixed
resource, such as the
square footage in which to
eat, sleep,<br>
> and wash?<br>
><br>
> Meanwhile developers
are building "luxury"
apartments, but the number
of<br>
> "affordable" units
isn't specified and always
turns out to be less than<br>
> first claimed. How
is it that anyone has a
"right" to luxury, at the<br>
> expense of others'
poverty and homelessness?<br>
><br>
> At root, this isn't a
race issue of black and
white, though the
guardians of<br>
> privilege benefit
mightily when it's framed
that way, and people who
have<br>
> common cause are
divided against each
other. At root, it's a
class issue of<br>
> green and red.<br>
><br>
> Land speculation is a
broken machine running an
obsolete operating system,<br>
> that's begging to get
"rooted."<br>
><br>
> -G<br>
><br>
><br>
> =====<br>
><br>
><br>
><br>
> On 13-06-08-Sat 3:06
PM, Sonja Trauss wrote:<br>
><br>
> I know, it's so
outrageous. This line,
"The notion of smart
growth — also<br>
> referred to as urban
infill — has been around
for years, embraced by a<br>
> certain type of
environmentalist,
particularly those
concerned with<br>
> protecting open
space."<br>
><br>
> Yeah, the type of
environmentalist that is
an environmentalist - what
is<br>
> this supposed to
mean!<br>
><br>
> Also I guess (I hope)
these progressives don't
realize that in opposing<br>
> development in
Bayview, they are
contributing to keeping
blacks overall<br>
> poorer than whites.<br>
><br>
> Putting renters aside
for a minute, let's
consider similarly
situated black<br>
> and white homeowners,
in similar income black
and white neighborhoods.
If<br>
> these neighborhoods
are in a city that is
growing in wealth and
population<br>
> (like san francisco)
both homeowners should be
able to look forward to
their<br>
> house values
increasing, right? NO.
House values at first only
increase in<br>
> the white
neighborhoods, because the
new residents, moving to
SF from all<br>
</div>
</div>
<div> > --<br>
Eddie Miller, BU '10<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true">eddiemill@gmail.com</a> |
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="tel:440-935-5434"
value="+14409355434"
target="_blank">440-935-5434</a><br>
Facebook.com/eddiemill |
Twitter.com/eddiemill<br>
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<br>
-- <br>
-------
<div>Andrew Lowe</div>
<div>Cell: 831-332-2507</div>
<div><a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://roshambomedia.com"
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