Lets be clear that no one is arguing there should be
less housing in
SF. The argument is that current housing in SF is too expensive and
vacant. There isn't a scarcity as much as a price fixing scheme going
on. The only purpose for building new units is for the developers and
landlords to get in on the scheme while it's hot, hoping for the
market to bounce back and suddenly $5,000 is the new $3,000 in SF and
they are sitting on prime real estate. In the meantime the units will
remain vacant or just rented out (or leased) to people moving in to
the City for work.
On Mon, Jun 10, 2013 at 4:32 PM, GtwoG PublicOhOne
<g2g-public01(a)att.net <mailto:g2g-public01@att.net>> wrote:
That $5,000/month 2-BR apartment translates to $60K/year for rent,
which means that the owner isn't even going to look at anyone with
an income below $180K, or a married couple with joint income of
$180K and perfect credit ratings.
Re. "many levels of rich": the average millionaire is closer to
his/her gardener in terms of net worth, than to the plutocrats
(but most millionaires have no clue about this). In any case,
there are enough people in the 1% to account for 95% of the
spending in the economy (keyword search "plutonomy" and look for
the report that was leaked from one of the major banks on that
topic), so the bottom 99% is almost irrelevant ("supply and
demand" for human lives, again).
Re. "at whatever level a developer wants to provide more housing,
I'll say YES DO IT..." Be careful what you wish for...
Re. "tall buildings..." (preceding email): When the inevitable
7.0 on either the Hayward or San Andreas occurs, even if the
building remains standing (this can't be taken for granted either,
given the problems with the imported steel in the Bay Bridge)
power & water will be out for weeks, possibly months in some
areas. Elevators and air conditioning won't be working in those
buildings. So now you have highrises full of people, some of whom
are elderly, disabled, or have small kids, with no food or water,
and no sanitation. Asking neighbors to carry food up the stairs
might work, but lugging water up ten or twenty flights is a
non-starter (a 2-day supply for one person for drinking and
cooking, is about 25 lbs.).
Even earthquake-denialism doesn't help us, because adding
high-rises adds demand for water, sewer, and parking, all the
time. Assuming that most high-rise residents won't have cars
doesn't help much, because some will, and those will still add up
to more cars than there is space to park them. Water and sewer
are the biggies, and any move toward highrise development will
require digging up streets and installing new water & sewer mains,
which translate to higher costs either in rent or in taxes.
Albert Einstein was a pacifist, and Edward Teller was a hawk.
Both agreed that the exponential function is the most dangerous
math on Earth.
-G.
=====
On 13-06-10-Mon 3:41 PM, Sonja Trauss wrote:
Yeah Jehan that's how I understand it.
Eddie's scenario though is that rich_guy CAN'T move into the nice
new apt, because before he gets there, some rich_guy_2 moves into
the apt from Mountain View, and /rich_guy_2 would not have moved
into SF if the new apartments hadn't been built/.
This is a scenario, so we should explore its antecedents and
consequences.
My first response is - so what if this happens. In this scenario
rents go neither up or down. I don't think it's realistic to
expect that all new building will be taken up like this, but,
since I don't know the future, it's worth imagining this extreme
outcome and asking, is it bad? if it is bad, is it so bad that we
shouldn't take the risk of it happening? I don't see it as bad.
Like I said before, it will have no net affect on rent, so we
lose nothing, and there might be ancillary benefits: my $13 jam
business might improve, or my $75/ hour personal yoga coach
business. Maybe I'm a social worker, and this means there will be
more money in the city budget for my organization. whatever.
Next, more interestingly, let's consider what could possibly
cause rich_guy_2's behavior. Usually people move to be closer to
work, to be closer to some fun city center, to be closer to
family, they make the decision and then they look for housing.
They do not hear of new housing being built and say, on that fact
alone, 'I will now move!'
If someone hears of new housing being built, and he then says, 'I
will now move,' it is because he is (1) very strict about only
living in brand new housing (not likely) or (2) RESPONDING TO AN
INCREASE IN SUPPLY AT HIS PRICE POINT.
Have you ever heard someone say "there are no available
apartments in SF"? Of course he doesn't mean there are no
available apartments, of course there are apartments:
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/apa/ there's a $5000 2 bedroom at
the top of the list. What he means is "there are no available
apartments in SF at my price point." So, this person, who wants
to spend say, $3000 for a nice 2 bedroom lives somewhere else,
and waits for the supply of $3000 2 bedroom apartments to
increase. This is rich_guy_2. This person is currently priced out
of San Francisco. Hard to believe, but true, there are many
levels of rich. You can be house shopping and be priced out at
almost any price point. I'm sympathetic to people that are priced
out. I don't want to see anyone priced out. I'm not going to
discriminate based on income high or low. No one should be priced
out. If you can pay $300/mo or $3000 you should be able to find
something you think is reasonable in this town. The supply of
housing in SF is too small at all but the highest price point. At
whatever level a developer wants to supply more housing, I will
say YES. DO IT.
MOREOVER. If it's expensive to build, developers will only be
able to afford to build high priced projects. One of the things
that makes building expensive is fighting with neighbors. So its
ironic (and a little sad) to see people who want lower priced
housing doing things that make building expensive. I think I said
this in another email, but if a smaller budget developer wants to
build a cheaper project, but sees that even the very rich
developer can barely get his project finished because he has to
spend time and resources fighting with neighbors, then the
smaller developer will be like forget it, I can't do this.
On Mon, Jun 10, 2013 at 1:46 PM, Jehan Tremback
<jehan.tremback(a)gmail.com <mailto:jehan.tremback@gmail.com>> wrote:
@Eddie- Sorry about the eye! That was the default Ubuntu
avatar, and it somehow got synced to my email when I ran
Pidgin. So the eye is actually open source! I'll get rid of
it though if you want.
I'll go over this briefly, but there are better resources out
there.
Let's say rich guy can afford $3000 dollars a month and wants
to live in SF. So landlord charges him $3000 for an apartment
because it isn't a closet. Since there is nowhere else to
live in SF, rich guy pays this. New luxury building opens
across the street with really nice new apartments for $3000 a
month. Rich guy decides to move, and landlord puts apartment
back on the market for $3000. But because all of the other
rich guys are also living in the new luxury building,
landlord finds no tenants. Next month, landlord is forced to
lower rent to $2000 and 4 hackers move in. This is how the
market works.
-Jehan
On Mon, Jun 10, 2013 at 11:46 AM, Sonja Trauss
<sonja.trauss(a)gmail.com <mailto:sonja.trauss@gmail.com>> wrote:
Ok so your position is that the whole of the new housing
will be taken up by people who don't currently live in
SF, want to, but won't move into SF unless new housing is
built.
Can you describe what it is about the new housing that
will make people who already have stable, adequate places
to live elsewhere move into it, when they've already
decided theyre not interested in living in any of the
currently available sf housing? Does this question make
sense? What's special about the new housing? What would
make a person move to SF Only If new housing is built?
What is the scenario. I can think of two. One silly and
one not silly.
On Sunday, June 9, 2013, Eddie Che wrote:
Oy, greetings. First of all that Eye is really
hateful, let's tone
that down a little! I've been against the eye because
it is oppressive
so, chill. @Jehan.
Building will increase the population in San
Francisco. Not house the
houseless and not bring down rents. These are upscale
(condos?)
apartments, bringing the added keyword of gentrification.
I like the Spain example. Government here (County,
City, State, and
National) could give land that is being held by it,
eg around highway
off-ramps or hills or wherEVER to folks who are
disenchanted with...
corporate rule.
"liberating land from private control and corporate
interests and for
the common good of all people."
Can we hack that?
EMCHE, in a tree.
PS by the way, surprising about SF's vacant housing
units @
https://www.baycitizen.org/blogs/pulse-of-the-bay/sf-leads-bay-area-vacant-…
On Sat, Jun 8, 2013 at 6:41 PM, GtwoG PublicOhOne
<g2g-public01(a)att.net> wrote:
Imagine a news headline saying "Good news for the
economy:
food prices are
up for the third month in a row!"
Food-owners
would celebrate, and
foodless-rights advocates would protest, but
nothing would change unless the
entire system of food-speculation was curbed.
Or imagine this: Dateline: Marinaleda, Spain.
Municipal
government GIVES
dispossessed people the land and building
materials
to build their own
homes, and pays contractors to provide assistance
with the high-skill parts
such as plumbing. This is REAL and it's
happening NOW.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22701384
"In the wake of Spain's property crash, hundreds of
thousands of homes have
been repossessed. While one regional government
says it will seize
repossessed properties from the banks, a little
town is doing away with
mortgages altogether. ... In Marinaleda,
residents
like 42-year-old
father-of-three, David Gonzalez Molina, are
building their own homes.
"The town hall in this ... town an hour-and-a-bit
east of
Seville, has given
David 190 sq m (2,000 sq ft) of land. ... The
bricks and mortar are also a
gift... from the regional government of
Andalusia.
... Only once his home is
finished will he start paying 15 euros (£13)
[approx. $26] a month, to the
regional government, to refund the cost of other
building materials. ...
"...[The town's] Mayor Juan Manuel Sanchez Gordillo
is
known for occupying
land belonging to the wealthy in Andalusia. ...
Last summer, he and his
left-wing union comrades stole from supermarkets
and handed out the food to
the poor. "I think it is possible that a
home
should be a right, and not a
business, in Europe", he argues. Mayor
Sanchez
Gordillo pours scorn on
"speculators"....
---
Think outside the box, and you might end up
thinking like Mayor
Sanchez
Gordillo.
What happens when home prices and rents keep
increasing while
average income
levels have barely budged since 1974?
What happens to the lives of people, when the
health of an economy
in large
part depends on relentless increase in the price
of
a vital necessity that
is also a fixed resource, such as the square
footage in which to eat, sleep,
and wash?
Meanwhile developers are building "luxury"
apartments,
but the number of
"affordable" units isn't specified
and always turns
out to be less than
first claimed. How is it that anyone has a
"right"
to luxury, at the
expense of others' poverty and homelessness?
At root, this isn't a race issue of black and
white, though
the guardians of
privilege benefit mightily when it's framed
that
way, and people who have
common cause are divided against each other. At
root, it's a class issue of
green and red.
Land speculation is a broken machine running an
obsolete operating
system,
that's begging to get "rooted."
-G
=====
On 13-06-08-Sat 3:06 PM, Sonja Trauss wrote:
I know, it's so outrageous. This line, "The notion
of
smart growth — also
referred to as urban infill — has been around for
years, embraced by a
certain type of environmentalist, particularly
those concerned with
protecting open space."
Yeah, the type of environmentalist that is an
environmentalist -
what is
this supposed to mean!
Also I guess (I hope) these progressives don't
realize that in
opposing
development in Bayview, they are contributing to
keeping blacks overall
poorer than whites.
Putting renters aside for a minute, let's consider
similarly
situated black
and white homeowners, in similar income black and
white neighborhoods. If
these neighborhoods are in a city that is growing
in wealth and population
(like san francisco) both homeowners should be
able
to look forward to their
house values increasing, right? NO. House values
at
first only increase in
the white neighborhoods, because the new
residents,
moving to SF from all
--
Eddie Miller, BU
'10
eddiemill(a)gmail.com | 440-935-5434 <tel:440-935-5434>
Facebook.com/eddiemill |
Twitter.com/eddiemill
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